KY-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.4enters as 95.4
Democrats win
4.6enters as 100 − 4.6 = 95.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does KY-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for KY-04? - Ed Gallrein94.9Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?95.5Will Democratic win the House race for KY-04? - Melissa Claire Strange4.0KY-04 General Election — Melissa Strange4.0KY-04 General Election — Thomas Massie5.0KY-04 General Election — Ed Gallrein92.0
Show all 10 contracts
Will Ed Gallrein win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?92.0Will Melissa Strange win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will Thomas Massie win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?5.0Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?4.2
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.4 · rows open on the exchange
Other Kentucky races this cycle