KY-05 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
97.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
97.8enters as 97.8
Democrats win
2.2enters as 100 − 2.2 = 97.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does KY-05 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for KY-05? - Hal Rogers98.4Will Democratic win the House race for KY-05? - Ned Pillersdorf1.2KY-05 General Election — Ned Pillersdorf2.5KY-05 General Election — Hal Rogers92.0Will Hal Rogers win the Kentucky 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?92.0Will Ned Pillersdorf win the Kentucky 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?2.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?97.3Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?2.1
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 97.8 · rows open on the exchange
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