LA-06 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected flip to Rep·$116 traded / 24h·12 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 100 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
92.0Safe R · ▼ 1.4 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
92.0
enters as 92.0
Democrats win
8.0
enters as 100 − 8.0 = 92.0

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does LA-06 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will Democratic win the House race for LA-06? - Democratic party8.3Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 91.7weight 100.0%Louisiana-06 House Winner - Blake Miguez2.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 2.0weight 0.0%Louisiana-06 House Winner - Lindsay Garcia2.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%Louisiana-06 House Winner - Rick Edmonds49.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 49.0weight 0.0%Louisiana-06 House Winner - Monique Appeaning12.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 88.0weight 0.0%LA-06 General Election — Christian Johnson3.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.0weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 92.0 · rows open on the exchange
Other Louisiana races this cycle

Also on the ballot