NC-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.6
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.6enters as 2.6
Democrats win
97.4enters as 100 − 97.4 = 2.6
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NC-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 38 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 6
Sorted by weight
NC-04 General Election — Mahesh Ganorkar8.0NC-04 General Election — Valerie Foushee92.0Will Democratic win the House race for NC-04? - Valerie Foushee95.3Will Republican win the House race for NC-04? - Max Ganorkar3.7Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?3.8Will the Democratic Party win the NC-04 House seat?96.5
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.6 · rows open on the exchange
Other North Carolina races this cycle