NJ-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
94.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
94.5enters as 94.5
Democrats win
5.5enters as 100 − 5.5 = 94.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NJ-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-04? - Rachel Peace6.0Will Republican win the House race for NJ-04? - Chris Smith94.9Will the Republican Party win the NJ-04 House seat?95.3Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-04 House seat?4.1NJ-04 General Election — Rachel Peace3.0NJ-04 General Election — Chris Smith97.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Carolyn Rush win the New Jersey 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?12.0Will Chris Smith win the New Jersey 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 94.5 · rows open on the exchange
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