MI-03 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$892 traded / 24h·11 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 130 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.6Safe D · ▲ 0.8 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.6
enters as 5.6
Democrats win
94.4
enters as 100 − 94.4 = 5.6

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does MI-03 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 11

Sorted by weight

Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3? - Hillary Scholten94.1Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 5.9weight 59.4%Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3? - Terri DeBoer7.4Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 7.4weight 35.0%Will the Republican Party win the MI-03 House seat?4.2Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.3weight 5.6%Michigan-03 House Winner - Hillary Scholten96.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 4.0weight 0.0%Michigan-03 House Winner - Terri DeBoer9.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 91.0weight 0.0%MI-03 General Election — J. Allen Fiorletta6.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 6.0weight 0.0%
Show all 11 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.6 · rows open on the exchange
Other Michigan races this cycle

Also on the ballot