NY-02 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
79.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
79.4enters as 79.4
Democrats win
20.6enters as 100 − 20.6 = 79.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-02 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-02? - Patrick Halpin21.0Will Republican win the House race for NY-02? - Andrew Garbarino80.0Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?79.5NY-02 General Election — Pat Halpin16.0NY-02 General Election — Andrew Garbarino86.0Will Pat Halpin win the New York 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?16.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Andrew Garbarino win the New York 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?78.0Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?21.5
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 79.4 · rows open on the exchange
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