NY-05 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.8enters as 2.8
Democrats win
97.2enters as 100 − 97.2 = 2.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-05 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NY-05? - George Marsh2.4NY-05 General Election — George Marsh4.0NY-05 General Election — Gregory Meeks94.0Will George Marsh win the New York 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?4.0Will Gregory Meeks win the New York 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?94.0Will Democratic win the House race for NY-05? - Gregory Meeks96.8
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the NY-05 House seat?1.1Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat?98.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.8 · rows open on the exchange
Other New York races this cycle