NY-18 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
4.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
4.5enters as 4.5
Democrats win
95.5enters as 100 − 95.5 = 4.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-18 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
NY-18 General Election — Jackie Auringer7.0NY-18 General Election — Pat Ryan89.0New York-18 House Winner - Jackie Auringer6.0New York-18 House Winner - Pat Ryan98.0Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-18? - Pat Ryan98.0Will a Republican win the House race for NY-18? - Jacqueline Auringer4.7
Show all 9 contracts
Will Pat Ryan win the New York 18th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0Will the Republican Party win the NY-18 House seat?4.3Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?95.9
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 4.5 · rows open on the exchange
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