PA-15 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.5enters as 95.5
Democrats win
4.5enters as 100 − 4.5 = 95.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does PA-15 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
PA-15 General Election — Ray Bilger6.0PA-15 General Election — Glenn Thompson89.0Will Democratic win the House race for PA-15? - Ray Bilger4.5Will Republican win the House race for PA-15? - Glenn Thompson95.4Will Glenn Thompson win the Pennsylvania 15th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0Will Ray Bilger win the Pennsylvania 15th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?12.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the PA-15 House seat?94.8Will the Democratic Party win the PA-15 House seat?3.9
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.5 · rows open on the exchange
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