OR-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
4.0
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
4.0enters as 4.0
Democrats win
96.0enters as 100 − 96.0 = 4.0
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does OR-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 38 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the OR-04 House seat?3.6Oregon-04 House Winner - Monique DeSpain7.0Oregon-04 House Winner - Val Hoyle97.0OR-04 General Election — Monique DeSpain9.0OR-04 General Election — Val Hoyle91.0Will Democratic win the House race for OR-04? - Val Hoyle97.0
Show all 10 contracts
Will Republican win the House race for OR-04? - Monique DeSpain3.1Will Monique DeSpain win the Oregon 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?9.0Will Val Hoyle win the Oregon 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0Will the Democratic Party win the OR-04 House seat?95.7
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 4.0 · rows open on the exchange
Other Oregon races this cycle