Oregon Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
1.0
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
1.0enters as 1.0
Democrats win
99.0enters as 100 − 99.0 = 1.0
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Oregon decide the Senate?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.2.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oregon? - Jeff Merkley99.0Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon? - David Brock Smith1.0Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?1.4Oregon US Senate Winner - David Brock Smith4.0Oregon US Senate Winner - Jeff Merkley98.0Oregon Senate General Election — David Brock Smith3.0
Show all 12 contracts
Oregon Senate General Election — Jeff Merkley97.5Will David Brock Smith win the Oregon general election for US Senate in 2026?3.0Will Jeff Merkley win the Oregon general election for US Senate in 2026?98.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Oregon? - Republican (Smith)4.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Oregon? - Democratic (Merkley)98.0Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?98.7
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