PA-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
3.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
3.3enters as 3.3
Democrats win
96.7enters as 100 − 96.7 = 3.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does PA-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 11
Sorted by weight
Pennsylvania-04 House Winner - Aurora Stuski5.0Pennsylvania-04 House Winner - Madeleine Dean97.0PA-04 General Election — Ismaine Ayouaz6.0PA-04 General Election — Aurora Stuski7.0PA-04 General Election — Madeleine Dean91.0Will Democratic win the House race for PA-04? - Madeleine Dean98.0
Show all 11 contracts
Will Republican win the House race for PA-04? - Aurora Stuski4.6Will Ismaine Ayouaz win the Pennsylvania 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?12.0Will Madeleine Dean win the Pennsylvania 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0Will the Republican Party win the PA-04 House seat?2.3Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat?96.9
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 3.3 · rows open on the exchange
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