NY-22 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
3.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
3.3enters as 3.3
Democrats win
96.7enters as 100 − 96.7 = 3.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-22 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will a Republican win the House race for NY-22? - Kailee Buller3.9Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-22? - John Mannion97.3New York-22 House Winner - Kailee Buller5.0New York-22 House Winner - John Mannion98.0NY-22 General Election — John Mannion96.0Will John Mannion win the New York 22nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?96.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?2.5Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?97.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 3.3 · rows open on the exchange
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