SD-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.5enters as 96.5
Democrats win
3.5enters as 100 − 3.5 = 96.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does SD-01 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for SD-AL? - Marty Jackley96.3South Dakota-At-Large House Winner - Nicole Gronli5.0South Dakota-At-Large House Winner - Marty Jackley97.0Will Democratic win the House race for SD-AL? - Nicole Gronli3.3Will Marty Jackley win the South Dakota 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?94.0Will Dusty Johnson win the South Dakota at-large District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?3.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat?95.0Will the Democratic Party win the SD-AL House seat?4.2
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.5 · rows open on the exchange
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