VA-05 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
65.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
65.9enters as 65.9
Democrats win
34.1enters as 100 − 34.1 = 65.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does VA-05 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
VA-05 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-05? - Tom Perriello34.0Will Republican win the House race for VA-05? - John McGuire66.0Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?63.5Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?36.5VA-05 General Election — Tom Perriello30.5VA-05 General Election — John McGuire68.5
Show all 8 contracts
Will John McGuire win the Virginia 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?68.0Will Tom Perriello win the Virginia 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?31.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 65.9 · rows open on the exchange
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