NY-21 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
56.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
56.7enters as 56.7
Democrats win
43.3enters as 100 − 43.3 = 56.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-21 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
NY-21 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NY-21? - Anthony Constantino68.0Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21? - Blake Gendebien33.0Will Blake Gendebien win the New York 21st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?31.0Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?66.0Will Anthony Constantino win the New York 21st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?69.0Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?33.5
Show all 12 contracts
New York-21 House Winner - Anthony Constantino70.0New York-21 House Winner - Blake Gendebien35.0NY-21 General Election — Robert Smullen2.5NY-21 General Election — Blake Gendebien30.5NY-21 General Election — Anthony Constantino69.5Will Robert Smullen win the New York 21st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 56.7 · rows open on the exchange
Other New York races this cycle