WA-05 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
83.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
83.8enters as 83.8
Democrats win
16.2enters as 100 − 16.2 = 83.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does WA-05 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-05? - Carmela Conroy16.0Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?16.2Will Republican win the House race for WA-05? - Michael Baumgartner86.0Washington-05 House Winner - Michael Baumgartner87.0Washington-05 House Winner - Carmela Conroy17.0WA-05 General Election — Carmela Conroy11.0
Show all 9 contracts
WA-05 General Election — Michael Baumgartner89.0Will Michael Baumgartner win the Washington 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?81.0Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?83.5
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 83.8 · rows open on the exchange