IA-03 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
16.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
16.4enters as 16.4
Democrats win
83.6enters as 100 − 83.6 = 16.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does IA-03 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for IA-3? - Sarah Trone Garriott83.0Will Republican win the House race for IA-3? - Zach Nunn16.0Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?15.0Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?85.0Iowa-03 House Winner - Zach Nunn17.0Iowa-03 House Winner - Sarah Trone Garriott86.0
Show all 10 contracts
IA-03 General Election — Zach Nunn21.5IA-03 General Election — Sarah Trone Garriott78.5Will Zach Nunn win the Iowa 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?21.0Will Sarah Trone Garriott win the Iowa 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?80.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 16.4 · rows open on the exchange
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