++++
Ethiopia
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
24.6
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
3
Contracts
2
Prediction Market Exchanges
3
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
8.6PMI
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?Manifold
$448
29.5PMI
Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?Manifold
$128
35.0PMI
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?Metaculus
$37