China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. Only one exchange lists it today.
LIVE1 CONTRACT·1 EXCHANGE·CHINA
What the market prices
6.1%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Manifold
30d low 6.1 · Oct 2230d high 8.1 · Sep 27
Where the books disagree
One exchange, one price
Only Manifold lists this question, so there is no cross-exchange read to compare. If another exchange lists the same question, it joins this page rather than appearing separately.
Other questions on China
Also priced on China
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?11%Will China initiate a military conflict with Japan?3.9%All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?3.0%Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?18%China x Philippines military clash before 2027?19%China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?3.9%