++++
China
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
23.7
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
39
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
39
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
28.0PMI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$14.9k
4.0PMI
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?Manifold
$12.7k
7.0PMI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$7.7k
8.1PMI
China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026Manifold
$3.3k
18.3PMI
Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?Manifold
$2.8k
6.0PMI
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$2.3k
61.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?Metaculus
$2.0k
5.0PMI
Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?Metaculus
$854
25.1PMI
Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?Manifold
$665
7.2PMI
China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026Manifold
$630
26.4PMI
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?Manifold
$395
49.0PMI
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2040?Manifold
$363
11.0PMI
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?Manifold
$354
10.6PMI
Will China bomb any country by the end of 2026?Manifold
$299
46.0PMI
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2035?Manifold
$287
66.0PMI
If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?Metaculus
$264
1.0PMI
Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?Metaculus
$235
51.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?Metaculus
$202
70.0PMI
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?Metaculus
$194
47.2PMI
China conducts Red Sea combat operations before 2040?Manifold
$188
70.0PMI
If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?Metaculus
$177
10.0PMI
Will there be a China-India war by 2035?Metaculus
$173
69.0PMI
Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?Metaculus
$166
23.6PMI
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2030?Manifold
$159
65.6PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]Manifold
$120
5.1PMI
US x China Military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$106
10.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?Metaculus
$104
17.5PMI
Will there be a US-China war before 2050?Metaculus
$67
2.0PMI
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?Metaculus
$44
10.0PMI
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?Metaculus
$44
71.0PMI
If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?Metaculus
$40
15.0PMI
Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?Metaculus
$35
12.0PMI
Will the Solomon Islands host a Chinese military base before 2032?Metaculus
$31
7.0PMI
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$28
12.0PMI
Will armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?Metaculus
$22
3.1PMI
China coup attempt before 2027?Polymarket
$19
44.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030Manifold
$18
10.5PMI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)Manifold
$14
18.0PMI
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?Polymarket
$0