China
Armed-conflict risk on China, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Asia and the world reading.
LIVE$16K TRADED / 24H·23 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·ASIA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
9.7Calm risk · 23rd of 36 countries
▼ 0.1 24h · ▼ 1.1 7d
▼ 0.1 24h · ▼ 1.1 7d
China reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
23.130D HIGH
7.130D LOW
▼ 9.830D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT CHINA
Why did China cool this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 23 by volume
The five contracts that move China
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?11%China x Japan military clash before 2027?4%China x Philippines military clash before 2027?19%China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?4%Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?17%
These 5 are 97% of today's volume. 8 of the 23 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA
Afghanistan 59.2 ›Pakistan 31.5 ›Philippines 18.5 ›North Korea 13.8 ›India 9.3 ›Taiwan 6.9 ›South Korea 4.0 ›Japan 3.9 ›
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