Japan has a nuclear weapon by end 2030?
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. Only one exchange lists it today.
LIVE1 CONTRACT·1 EXCHANGE·JAPAN
What the market prices
9.6%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Manifold
30d low 9.6 · Sep 2730d high 9.6 · Sep 27
Where the books disagree
One exchange, one price
Only Manifold lists this question, so there is no cross-exchange read to compare. If another exchange lists the same question, it joins this page rather than appearing separately.
Other questions on Japan