++++
Japan
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
19.8
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
6
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
6
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
9.6PMI
Japan has a nuclear weapon by end 2030?Manifold
$3.3k
6.0PMI
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Polymarket
$2.3k
7.2PMI
China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026Manifold
$630
51.0PMI
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?Metaculus
$202
88.0PMI
Will the Japan Self-Defense Forces have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027?Metaculus
$39
20.0PMI
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?Metaculus
$33