Japan
Armed-conflict risk on Japan, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Asia and the world reading.
LIVE$6K TRADED / 24H·4 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·ASIA·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
3.9Calm risk · 33rd of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Japan reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
7.630D HIGH
3.030D LOW
▼ 2.730D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT JAPAN
What is driving Japan's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Japan
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
China x Japan military clash before 2027?4%Japan has a nuclear weapon by end 2030?10%China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 20266%Will far-right win 2030 Japan election?24%
4 contracts carry all of today's volume.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA
Afghanistan 59.2 ›Pakistan 31.5 ›Philippines 18.5 ›North Korea 13.8 ›China 9.7 ›India 9.3 ›Taiwan 6.9 ›South Korea 4.0 ›
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