Vermont Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$52K traded / 24h·14 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 5 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
78.4Likely R · ▲ 2.9 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
78.4
enters as 78.4
Democrats win
21.6
enters as 100 − 21.6 = 78.4

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Vermont

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 14

Sorted by weight

Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?79.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 79.0weight 29.3%Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?20.7Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 79.3weight 28.5%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont - Amanda Janoo23.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 77.0weight 21.8%Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Election?77.0Manifold ◦ ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 77.0weight 14.9%Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont - Phil Scott78.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 78.0weight 5.2%Will Phil Scott win the Vermont general election for Governor in 2026?81.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 81.0weight 0.2%
Show all 14 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 78.4 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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