Florida Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$352K traded / 24h·16 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 6 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
78.7Likely R · ▼ 0.2 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
78.7
enters as 78.7
Democrats win
21.3
enters as 100 − 21.3 = 78.7

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Florida

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 16

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida - Byron Donalds79.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 79.0weight 53.9%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida - David Jolly22.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 78.0weight 23.3%Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?80.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 80.0weight 19.4%Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?21.0Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 79.0weight 3.3%Will David Jolly become Florida's next governor?22.9Manifold ◦ ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 22.9weight 0.1%Will David Jolly win the Florida general election for Governor in 2026?17.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 17.0weight 0.1%
Show all 16 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 78.7 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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