AL-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
99.1
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
99.1enters as 99.1
Democrats win
0.9enters as 100 − 0.9 = 99.1
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AL-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 38 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
AL-04 General Election — Amanda Pusczek2.0AL-04 General Election — Robert Aderholt93.0Will Democratic win the House race for AL-04? - Amanda Pusczek0.7Will Republican win the House race for AL-04? - Robert Aderholt99.0Will Robert Aderholt win the Alabama 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0Will Amanda Pusczek win the Alabama 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?6.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?98.2Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?0.1
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 99.1 · rows open on the exchange
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