CA-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
0.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
0.9enters as 0.9
Democrats win
99.1enters as 100 − 99.1 = 0.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for CA-9? - John McBride1.0CA-09 General Election — John McBride3.0CA-09 General Election — James H. Shoemaker5.0CA-09 General Election — Josh Harder90.0Will Democratic win the House race for CA-9? - Josh Harder97.9Will Josh Harder win the California 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0
Show all 9 contracts
Will James H. Shoemaker win the California 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?5.0Will the Republican Party win the CA-09 House seat?0.5Will the Democratic Party win the CA-09 House seat?98.8
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 0.9 · rows open on the exchange
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