AR-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.7enters as 96.7
Democrats win
3.3enters as 100 − 3.3 = 96.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AR-01 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-01 House seat?3.3AR-01 General Election — Terri Yarbrough Green3.0AR-01 General Election — Rick Crawford96.0Will Democratic win the House race for AR-01? - Terri Yarbrough Green3.7Will Republican win the House race for AR-01? - Rick Crawford96.1Will Rick Crawford win the Arkansas 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?96.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Terri Yarbrough Green win the Arkansas 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?3.0Will the Republican Party win the AR-01 House seat?96.3
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Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.7 · rows open on the exchange
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