AR-02 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
80.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
80.7enters as 80.7
Democrats win
19.3enters as 100 − 19.3 = 80.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AR-02 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?18.5Will Democratic win the House race for AR-02? - Chris Jones21.0Will Republican win the House race for AR-02? - French Hill82.0Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?80.0AR-02 General Election — French Hill85.0AR-02 General Election — Chris Jones14.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Chris Jones win the Arkansas 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?13.0Will French Hill win the Arkansas 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?84.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 80.7 · rows open on the exchange
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