FL-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
82.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
82.5enters as 82.5
Democrats win
17.5enters as 100 − 17.5 = 82.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does FL-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 13
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-04? - LaShonda Holloway18.0Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?16.5Will Republican win the House race for FL-04? - Aaron Bean83.0FL-04 General Election — LaShonda Holloway16.0FL-04 General Election — Michael Kirwan2.0FL-04 General Election — Aaron Bean84.0
Show all 13 contracts
Will LaShonda Holloway win the Florida 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?16.0Will Aaron Bean win the Florida 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?85.0Will Michael Kirwan win the Florida 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?9.0Will Aaron Bean win the Florida 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?84.0Florida-04 House Winner - LaShonda Holloway19.0Florida-04 House Winner - Aaron Bean85.0Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?82.5
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 82.5 · rows open on the exchange
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