AZ-02 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
68.2
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
68.2enters as 68.2
Democrats win
31.8enters as 100 − 31.8 = 68.2
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AZ-02 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
AZ-02 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2? - Eli Crane70.0Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?67.5Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2? - Jonathan Nez32.0Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?32.5AZ-02 General Election — Jonathan Nez29.5AZ-02 General Election — Eli Crane67.5
Show all 8 contracts
Will Jonathan Nez win the Arizona 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?30.0Will Eli Crane win the Arizona 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?67.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 68.2 · rows open on the exchange
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