AZ-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.7enters as 5.7
Democrats win
94.3enters as 100 − 94.3 = 5.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AZ-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-04? - Greg Stanton94.1Will Republican win the House race for AZ-04? - Zuhdi Jasser6.6Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?95.7Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?4.3AZ-04 General Election — Zuhdi Jasser6.0AZ-04 General Election — Greg Stanton93.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Zuhdi Jasser win the Arizona 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?6.0Will Greg Stanton win the Arizona 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.7 · rows open on the exchange
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