AZ-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.0
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.0enters as 96.0
Democrats win
4.0enters as 100 − 4.0 = 96.0
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does AZ-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-09 House seat?95.9Will Republican win the House race for AZ-09? - Paul Gosar96.5AZ-09 General Election — Danielle Sterbinsky3.0AZ-09 General Election — Paul Gosar96.0Will Danielle Sterbinsky win the Arizona 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?3.0Will Paul Gosar win the Arizona 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?96.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-09? - Dani Sterbinsky5.6Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-09 House seat?3.5
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.0 · rows open on the exchange
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