NY-24 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.6
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.6enters as 95.6
Democrats win
4.4enters as 100 − 4.4 = 95.6
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-24 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat?2.7Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?97.2NY-24 General Election — Alissa Ellman7.0NY-24 General Election — Claudia Tenney91.0Will Alissa Ellman win the New York 24th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?7.0Will Claudia Tenney win the New York 24th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-24? - Alissa Ellman6.3Will Republican win the House race for NY-24? - Claudia Tenney96.7
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.6 · rows open on the exchange
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