CA-17 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·No 24h trading · standing quotes·7 contracts·4 exchanges·Margin rank 155 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
4.9Safe D · 0.0 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
4.9
enters as 4.9
Democrats win
95.1
enters as 100 − 95.1 = 4.9

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does CA-17 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7

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