CA-23 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.3enters as 96.3
Democrats win
3.7enters as 100 − 3.7 = 96.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-23 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-23? - Tessa Lynn Hodge5.8CA-23 General Election — Tessa Lynn Hodge8.0CA-23 General Election — Jay Obernolte93.0Will Republican win the House race for CA-23? - Jay Obernolte95.8Will Jay Obernolte win the California 23rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?95.5
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.3 · rows open on the exchange
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