CA-38 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
21.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
21.5enters as 21.5
Democrats win
78.5enters as 100 − 78.5 = 21.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-38 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
CA-38 General Election — Pedro Casas3.0CA-38 General Election — Linda Sanchez4.0CA-38 General Election — Hilda Solis95.0Will Democratic win the House race for CA-38? - Hilda Solis99.3Will Republican win the House race for CA-38? - Pedro Antonio Casas3.4Will Linda Sanchez win the California 38th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?18.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will the Republican Party win the CA-38 House seat?1.7Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat?97.5
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 21.5 · rows open on the exchange
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