NY-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
78.2
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
78.2enters as 78.2
Democrats win
21.8enters as 100 − 21.8 = 78.2
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-01 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-01? - Chris Gallant21.0Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?22.0Will Republican win the House race for NY-01? - Nick LaLota78.0Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?77.0New York-01 House Winner - Chris Gallant23.0New York-01 House Winner - Nick LaLota80.0
Show all 10 contracts
NY-01 General Election — Chris Gallant17.0NY-01 General Election — Nicholas J. LaLota87.0Will Chris Gallant win the New York 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?17.0Will Nicholas J. LaLota win the New York 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?72.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 78.2 · rows open on the exchange
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