CA-51 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
3.1
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
3.1enters as 3.1
Democrats win
96.9enters as 100 − 96.9 = 3.1
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CA-51 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-51 House seat?96.7CA-51 General Election — Ricardo Cabrera3.0CA-51 General Election — Sara Jacobs92.0Will Democratic win the House race for CA-51? - Sara Jacobs98.2Will Republican win the House race for CA-51? - Ricardo Cabrera1.8Will the Democratic party win the California's 51st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?88.0
Show all 7 contracts
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 3.1 · rows open on the exchange
Other California races this cycle