CT-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.4enters as 5.4
Democrats win
94.6enters as 100 − 94.6 = 5.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does CT-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
CT-04 General Election — Michael Goldstein4.0CT-04 General Election — Jim Himes97.5Will Democratic win the House race for CT-04? - Jim Himes98.0Will Republican win the House race for CT-04? - Michael Goldstein5.9Will the Democratic party win the Connecticut's 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?2.4
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.4 · rows open on the exchange
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