FL-23 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$1K traded / 24h·10 contracts·4 exchanges·Margin rank 222 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
3.9Safe D · ▲ 0.6 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
3.9
enters as 3.9
Democrats win
96.2
enters as 100 − 96.2 = 3.9

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does FL-23 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10

Sorted by weight

Will Republican win the House race for FL-23? - Deborah Adeimy3.9Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 3.9weight 95.0%Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23? - Lois Frankel96.2Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 3.8weight 5.0%FL-23 General Election — Jared Moskowitz2.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%FL-23 General Election — Deborah Adeimy8.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 92.0weight 0.0%FL-23 General Election — Lois Frankel93.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 7.0weight 0.0%Will Lois Frankel win the Florida 23rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 7.0weight 0.0%
Show all 10 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 3.9 · rows open on the exchange
Other Florida races this cycle

Also on the ballot