Georgia Senate 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$88K traded / 24h·12 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 16 of 35
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
5.1Safe D · ▲ 0.8 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
5.1
enters as 5.1
Democrats win
94.9
enters as 100 − 94.9 = 5.1

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the Senate

Does Georgia decide the Senate?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.8.
Full Senate picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia? - Mike Collins5.2Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 5.2weight 73.4%Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia? - Jon Ossoff94.9Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 5.1weight 11.2%Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?95.7Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 4.3weight 9.0%Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?4.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.0weight 6.4%Georgia Senate General Election — Mike Collins8.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 8.0weight 0.0%Georgia Senate General Election — Jon Ossoff94.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 6.0weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 5.1 · rows open on the exchange
Other Georgia races this cycle

Also on the ballot