IA-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
97.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
97.3enters as 97.3
Democrats win
2.8enters as 100 − 2.8 = 97.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does IA-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for IA-04? - Dave Dawson2.7IA-04 General Election — Dave Dawson6.0IA-04 General Election — Chris McGowan92.0IA-04 General Election — Matt Windschitl50.0IA-04 General Election — Ryan Rhodes50.0Will Dave Dawson win the Iowa 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?6.0
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Will Chris McGowan win the Iowa 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0Will Ryan Rhodes win the Iowa 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?45.0Will Matt Windschitl win the Iowa 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?45.0Will Republican win the House race for IA-04? - Chris McGowan97.2Will the Republican Party win the IA-04 House seat?95.9Will the Democratic Party win the IA-04 House seat?2.2
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 97.3 · rows open on the exchange
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