Iowa Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
Closest raceSafer · KS →
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
58.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
58.5enters as 58.5
Democrats win
41.5enters as 100 − 41.5 = 58.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Iowa decide the Senate?
Not by itself. It is inside the Republicans’ path.
Republicans need 4 of the 7 contested seats; Iowa is priced as their 2nd most likely win. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.3.
MOST LIKELY DEMOCRATICSEAT PMI
Alaska27.7Michigan31.0Ohio32.3TexasTIPS CONTROL34.3Maine39.1Iowa58.5
Kansas59.9MOST LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 (the Republican Vice President breaks ties). Democrats count from the top, Republicans from the bottom.
Full Senate pictureContracts behind this reading · 6 of 13
Sorted by weight
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa? - Ashley Hinson58.0Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa? - Josh Turek41.0Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?58.5Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?41.5Iowa US Senate Winner - Ashley Hinson65.0Iowa Senate General Election — Josh Turek45.5
Show all 13 contracts
Iowa Senate General Election — Josh Turek43.5Iowa Senate General Election — Ashley Hinson59.0Iowa US Senate Winner - Josh Turek42.0Will the Republican party win the Iowa general election for US Senate in 2026?78.0Will the Democratic party win the Iowa general election for US Senate in 2026?23.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Iowa? - Democratic (Turek)43.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Iowa? - Republican (Hinson)58.0
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 58.5 · rows open on the exchange
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