MA-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.9enters as 2.9
Democrats win
97.1enters as 100 − 97.1 = 2.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MA-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
MA-04 General Election — Thomas Stalcup4.0MA-04 General Election — Jake Auchincloss97.5Will Democratic win the House race for MA-04? - Jake Auchincloss90.9Will Republican win the House race for MA-04? - Tom Stalcup2.9Will Jake Auchincloss win the Massachusetts 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?1.8
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.9 · rows open on the exchange
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