Massachusetts Senate 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$1K traded / 24h·13 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 31 of 35
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
1.7Safe D · ▼ 0.4 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
1.7
enters as 1.7
Democrats win
98.3
enters as 100 − 98.3 = 1.7

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the Senate

Does Massachusetts decide the Senate?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 33.8.
Full Senate picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 13

Sorted by weight

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Massachusetts? - John Deaton1.7Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 1.7weight 92.7%Massachusetts US Senate Winner - Ed Markey97.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 3.0weight 6.1%Will Democratics win the Senate race in Massachusetts? - Ed Markey98.3Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 1.7weight 1.3%Massachusetts US Senate Winner - John Deaton5.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 95.0weight 0.0%Massachusetts US Senate Winner - Joseph Tache4.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 96.0weight 0.0%Massachusetts Senate General Election — John Deaton2.5IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.5weight 0.0%
Show all 13 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 1.7 · rows open on the exchange
Other Massachusetts races this cycle

Also on the ballot