MA-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.7enters as 2.7
Democrats win
97.3enters as 100 − 97.3 = 2.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MA-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the MA-09 House seat?2.2Will Democratic win the House race for MA-09? - Bill Keating98.0Massachusetts-09 House Winner - R. Tyler Macallister4.0Massachusetts-09 House Winner - Bill Keating99.0MA-09 General Election — Tyler Macallister8.0MA-09 General Election — Bill Keating97.5
Show all 9 contracts
Will Republican win the House race for MA-09? - Tyler MacAllister6.7Will Bill Keating win the Massachusetts 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?88.0Will the Democratic Party win the MA-09 House seat?96.8
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.7 · rows open on the exchange
Other Massachusetts races this cycle