MD-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
83.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
83.5enters as 83.5
Democrats win
16.5enters as 100 − 16.5 = 83.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MD-01 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for MD-01? - Andy Harris84.0Will Democratic win the House race for MD-01? - Dan Schwartz17.0Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?16.0Maryland-01 House Winner - Dan Schwartz18.0Maryland-01 House Winner - Andy Harris86.0MD-01 General Election — Dan Schwartz16.0
Show all 10 contracts
MD-01 General Election — Andy Harris82.0Will Dan Schwartz win the Maryland 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?16.0Will Andy Harris win the Maryland 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?85.0Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?83.5
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 83.5 · rows open on the exchange
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