MN-08 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
83.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
83.5enters as 83.5
Democrats win
16.5enters as 100 − 16.5 = 83.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MN-08 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for MN-08? - Trina Swanson17.0Will Republican win the House race for MN-08? - Pete Stauber84.0MN-08 General Election — Trina Swanson17.5MN-08 General Election — Pete Stauber81.0MN-08 General Election — Chad McKenna50.0Will Trina Swanson win the Minnesota 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?17.0
Show all 10 contracts
Will Chad McKenna win the Minnesota 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?40.0Will Pete Stauber win the Minnesota 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?82.0Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?82.0Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?19.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 83.5 · rows open on the exchange
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